ADMS

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation - State Research Institute in accordance with an Act from the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development has developed the climatic water balance for all Polish municipalities (3,064 municipalities), and based on the soils categories have identified in those municipalities the current agricultural drought risk for the following crops: grain and silage maize, sugar beet, potatoes, hops, tobacco, field vegetables, shrubs and fruit trees and legumes.

In the eleventh reporting period, i.e. from July 11 to August 10, 2015, does state a risk of agricultural drought in Poland. The values of climatic water balance (CWB), which are the basis to assess the risk of drought, are negative.

In the current sixty days period threat to agricultural drought occurs among crops:

• Legumes
• Potato
• Fruit shrubs
• Hops
• Silage maize
• Tobacco
• Ground vegetables

 

In the current sixty days period, compared to the previous period decreased range of agricultural drought in Poland. While still for crops like legumes, potato and fruit shrubs threat of drought  occurred in many of the voivodships in 100% of local district.

The value of CWB on Polish territory compared to the previous reporting period had significantly increased. On average for the country, these values compared to the previous period were higher by 49 mm.

Currently the biggest threat of drought in Poland still occurs for legumes crops. Drought for that crop occurs in soils of first and second category:

• I category (very light soil, granulometric group: sand
• II category (light soil, granulometric group: loamy sand)

 

Drought for these crops occurs in all voivodeships of the country, in 2624 local districts (85.6% of local districts) on 35.2% of arable land.

In four voivodeships (Lubuskie, Lodzkie, Opolskie, and Podlaskie) drought was observed in 100% of local districts. A little lower risk of drought occurred in four other voivodeships (Dolnośląskie, Wielkopolskie, Mazowieckie and Lubelskie voivodeships (respectively 98%). In Świętokrzyskie, Kujawsko-pomorskie, and Podkarpackie voivodeships have been reported large drought risk  in over 90% of local districts. Detailed data on drought risk for that crop group are presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Risk of agricultural drought for leguminous crops

 

Drought risk for potato occurs on soils category I, II, and III. It is present in  13 voivodeships 2013 local districts (65.7% of local districts in the country) on 29 % of the arable land.

Still the greatest risk of drought (in 100% of local districts) have been reported in the Lodzkie and Opolskie voivodships.

Relatively high threat of drought occurs in Swiętokrzyskie, Dolnośląskie oraz Lubelskie(92% of local districts)

To regions with a high risk of drought among these crops may include the Mazowieckie, Podkarpackie and Wielkopolskie voivodeships (in over 82% of local districts). Detailed data on this crop are presented in Table 2.

 

Table 2. The threat of agricultural drought for potato cultivation.

 

Drought risk for fruit shrubs occurs on soils category I, II, and III.

The agricultural drought is present in  13 voivodeships 2013 local districts (65.7% of local districts in the country) on 29.0 % of the arable land.

Still the greatest risk of drought (in 100% of local districts) have been reported in the Lodzkie and Opolskie voivodships.

Relatively high threat of drought occurs in Swiętokrzyskie, Dolnośląskie oraz Lubelskie(92% of local districts)

To regions with a high risk of drought among these crops may include the Mazowieckie, Podkarpackie and Wielkopolskie voivodeships (in over 82% of local districts). Detailed data on this crop are presented in Table 3.

 

Table 3. The threat of agricultural drought for fruit shrubs cultivation

 

Drought risk for hops occurs on soils category I. Drought (potential) for this cultivation occurs 7 voivodeships 415 local districts (13.5% of local districts in the country) on 1.5 % of the arable land.

The greatest risk of drought have been reported in the Opolskie voivodships. In the Lodzkie, Lubelskie and dolnośląskie voivodeship there were more than 37% of local districts with the threat of drought for the crop. Detailed data on this crop are presented in Table 4.

Table 4. The threat of agricultural drought for hops cultivation

Drought risk for silage corn occurs on soils category II. Drought for this cultivation occurs Opolskie and Dolnośląskie voivodeships 26 local districts (0.8% of local districts in the country) on 0.02 % of the arable land.

Detailed data on this crop are presented in Table 5.

Table 5. The threat of agricultural drought for tobacco cultivation

 

Drought risk for ground vegetables occurs on soils category I. Drought (potential) for this cultivation occurs Opolskim and Dolnośląskim voivodeships in 23 local districts (0.8% of local districts in the country) on 0.01 % of the arable land.

Detailed data on this crop are presented in Table 6.

Table 6. The threat of agricultural drought for ground vegetables cultivation

 

Drought risk for tobacco  occurs on soils category I. Drought for this cultivation occurs Opolskim and Dolnośląskim voivodeships 23 local districts (0.8% of local districts in the country) on 0.01 % of the arable land.

Detailed data on this crop are presented in Table 7.

Table 7. The threat of agricultural drought for ground vegetables cultivation

 

We inform, that the cultivation of grain maize and sugar beet on sandy soils is not indicated (soil category I, very light, very susceptible to drought). For this reason, for these soils are not CWB values are not presented for the crop and for this reason the cultivation of grain maize on soils category I is not considered by the Agricultural Drought Monitoring System.

In the current sixty days period, area particularly vulnerable to water deficit is the Opolskie and Dolnośląskie voivodeship. Within these provinces the shortage of water for the plants ranges from -200 to -209 mm.

As in the previous reporting period (in the seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth reporting period) as in the eleventh , an area particularly vulnerable to water deficit is still Lublin region. On outwith those territories similar water scarcity was recorded in Mazowieckie, Łódzkie and Wielkopolskie.

Still very low values of climatic water balance are also found in the northern areas of the Świętokrzyskie, southern of Podlaskie region and ranged from -170 to -179 mm.

We inform that the occurrence  of 20% yields reduction at local district scale in a given year as compared to yields obtained during multiannual averages of weather conditions, found so far the threat of drought during the growing season in 2015 on Polish territory among 14 groups and plant species:

• Spring cereals
• Winter cereals
• Shrubs
• Strawberries
• Legumes
• Rape and turnip rape
• Tobacco
• Ground vegetables
• Potato
• Hops
• Silage maize
• Grain maize
• Sugar beet
• Fruit trees

The total number of local districts threatened by drought this year in Poland and the participation of local district at risk (in%) is presented in table 11.

Table 8. Total number of local districts threatened by drought this year in Poland (%)

 

A potential area under agricultural drought risk in 2015 in Poland are presented in Table 9.

 

Table 12. The potential area under agricultural drought risk in 2015

Lp.	Cultivar	The area of drought risk [%]
1	Legumes	79.0
2	Potato	79.0
3	Fruit shrubs	75.1
4	Hops	37.1
5	Tobacco	36.3
6	Ground vegetables	29.5
7	Spring cereals	22.5
8	Silage maize	17.5
9	Fruit trees	16.7
10	Sugar beet	10.7
11	Strawberries	5.5
12	Winter cereals	5.2
13	Grain maize	4.2
14	Rape and turnip rape	0.8

 

We inform that, that in cases when the critical value of CWB in the local district are not exceeded, it means that the average loss in yield in a given local district does not exceed 20% losses,  relatively to the long term average yield. However, it should be noted that in this case in the individual households the yield losses can be as high as 30-40%. Estimated value in the amount of yield losses on a scale of local district, do not rule out that the losses on the farm could be even more than 25-30%. The local soil and climatic conditions of specific fields may in fact differ from the modeling results on a large scale (local district) and the amount of losses in a particular field may specify a specially appointed committee, whose purpose should be to verify the effects of drought in the area (local district).

In July, there have been very similar distribution of air temperature on Polish territory as in June. The lowest air temperature was recorded in the northern and north - eastern parts of the country. In contrast, the highest temperature was recorded in the south-western areas. In the northern regions of the country was recorded a temperature even below 17.0 degrees. In the southern areas of the Pomorskie Lakeland, Mazurskie Lakeland, Podlaska Lowland it was also chilly with temperatures ranging from 17 °C to 18 °C. At the Highlands and Lowlands of Poland recorded a high temperature of 18 °C to 20 °C. In contrast, the highest temperature (above 20 °C) was recorded in southern areas of the Śląska Lowland and the Karpaty Foothills, in some parts of the area were recorded even above 21 ° C.

The temperature distribution in the first ten days of August did not deviate from its distribution in June and July. Coldest, still was on the Embankment, in the northern part of the Pomorskie Lake District and Żuławy, below 21 ° C. In the southern parts of the Pomorskie Lake District, and in the area of the Mazurskie Lake District recorded a temperature of 21 to 23 ° C. The warmest it was the Śląska Lowland from 24.5 to over 25 ° C. In the rest of the country recorded from 23 to 24.5 ° C. The second ten days of August in Poland was also very warm. The hottest was in the western part of the country with air temperature of over 23 ° C. For many areas in Poland also it was very warm (20 to 23 ° C). Only slightly cooler was in the north-eastern part of the country with air temperature of below 20 ° C. The third ten days of August were also warm, in the southwest recorded the highest air temperature above 20 ° C. The coldest was in the northern parts of the country, from 18 to 19 ° C.

In the first ten days of September it recorded a relatively high temperature reduction to  below 14 ° C, at the Pomorskie Lake District and Podlasie. In the rest of Poland also it was cool from 14 to 16 ° C, only the Opole region of Dolny Śląsk recorded temperatures exceeding 16 ° C.

In July precipitation occurred in five main stripes, three of which were characterized by a relatively high rainfall from 70 to 100 mm, and two of them precipitation smaller - amounting to as low as less than 30 to 70 mm. Higher rainfall (above 70 mm) occurred on the Baltic coast, in northern regions of the Pomorskie Lake District, on Ziemia Lubuska, Wielkopolskie and Mazurskie Lakeland and south-eastern Poland. In contrast, areas with less rainfall (less than 70 mm) were in the southern regions of the Pomorskie Lake District, and Plains: Wielkopolska, Śląska, Mazowiecka, Podlaska and Wyżyny Polskie. The first ten days of August was characterised by a very different precipitation and on a large area was even an lack of them or too small instance. An area with very low rainfall (less than 2 mm) was Lowlands: Szczecińska, Śląska, Mazowiecka, Podlaska and Lubelska. Only slightly more rainfall occurred in the lake districts: Pomorskie, Wielkopolskie and also on the Polish Highlands and in the Beskidy Mountains from 2 to 20 mm in some places up to 40 mm. In the second ten days of August rainfalls were very small. Particularly low or even their absence was reported in the eastern part of the country. By contrast, slightly more was reported in the western part of the country from 5 to 40 mm, and in some places were locally higher rainfall origin of the storm. The third ten days of August a further period of very low rainfall. This time, particularly low rainfall occurred in the western part of the country (except the north-western region) from 2 to 5 mm. But not much more precipitation was recorded in the eastern part of the country from 5 to 10 mm. Only the northern parts of Poland had slightly greater rainfall than 10 to 20 mm.

The first ten days of September was characterised with a very diverse precipitation. High rainfall occurred in Kaszuby and in the western part of the Pomorskie Lake District from 50 to 90 mm and sometimes even more than 90 mm. The lowest rainfall recorded in Wielkopolska, in the southern part of the Śląska Lowland, Podlasie, Małopolska Highland, Sandomierz Basin and the Karpackie Foothills from 10 to 20 mm.