ADMS

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – State Research Institute, in accordance with an Act of the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development has developed the climatic water balance values for all 2478 Polish local districts (gminas) and, on the basis of soil categories, calculated the current risk of agricultural drought for the following crops: sugar beet, rape and turnip rape.

In the fourteenth reporting period, i.e. from August 1st to September 30th, 2018, IUNG-PIB stated agricultural drought conditions in Poland.

Due to a considerable drop in temperatures and abundance of precipitation in the last decade of September, the Climatic Water Balance values have increased by 49 mm in relation to the previous reporting period. The lowest CWB values were still recorded in Greater Poland Lake District and in the western part of Pomeranian Lake District, ranging from -150 to -190 mm, and in Silesian Lowland, ranging from -150 to -170 mm. Considerable water deficiency (from -120 to -150 mm) was recorded in the remaining western regions. In the east of Poland water deficiency was lower and ranged from -50 to -110 mm, apart from Polesie Lubelskie, where it ranged from -120 to -150 mm.

In the current reporting period drought occurs in the following monitored crops:

• Rape and turnip rape,
• Sugar beet.

The number of all local districts (gminas) in Poland at risk of agricultural drought (%) is presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Number of local districts (gminas) at risk of agricultural drought and the share of the area at risk in the country (%).

No.	Crop	Number of local districts (gminas) at risk	Share of local districts (gminas) at risk in Poland [%]
1.	Rape and turnip rape	412	16.63
2.	Sugar beet	386	15.58

The potential area at risk of agricultural drought in Poland is shown in Table 2.

Table 2. The area at risk of agricultural drought according to crops

No.	Crop	The arable area at risk of agricultural drought [%]
1.	Rape and turnip rape	6.24
2.	Sugar beet	5.91

In the fourteenth reporting period, from August 1st to September 30th 2018, the highest risk of agricultural drought occurred for rape and turnip rape. In Poland agricultural drought in these crops was recorded in 9 voivodeships, in 412 local districts (gminas), i.e. 16.63% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 6.24% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, both the number of local districts and the area of arable land at risk have considerably decreased: by 51.97 and 42.85%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in rape and turnip rape in particular voivodeships are presented in table 3.

Table 3. Agricultural drought in rape and turnip rape

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	wielkopolskie	226	198	87.61	36.43
2.	zachodniopomorskie	114	64	56.14	18.56
3.	lubuskie	82	36	43.90	14.71
4.	opolskie	71	25	35.21	4.95
5.	dolnośląskie	169	34	20.12	3.51
6.	kujawsko-pomorskie	144	26	18.06	3.38
7.	łódzkie	177	17	9.60	2.35
8.	pomorskie	123	6	4.88	0.13
9.	mazowieckie	314	6	1.91	0.03
10.	lubelskie	213	0	0.00	0.00
11.	małopolskie	182	0	0.00	0.00
12.	podkarpackie	160	0	0.00	0.00
13.	podlaskie	118	0	0.00	0.00
14.	śląskie	167	0	0.00	0.00
15.	świętokrzyskie	102	0	0.00	0.00
16.	warmińsko-mazurskie	116	0	0.00	0.00

In this reporting period agricultural drought occurred also in sugar beet. It was recorded in 9 voivodeships, in 386 local district (gminas), i.e. 15.58% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 5.91% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have considerably decreased: by 26.31% and 17.10%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in sugar beet are presented in table 4.

Table 4. Agricultural drought in sugar beet

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	wielkopolskie	226	194	85.84	35.28
2.	zachodniopomorskie	114	63	55.26	17.55
3.	lubuskie	82	35	42.68	14.61
4.	opolskie	71	20	28.17	4.65
5.	dolnośląskie	169	31	18.34	3.11
6.	kujawsko-pomorskie	144	21	14.58	2.42
7.	łódzkie	177	14	7.91	1.91
8.	pomorskie	123	4	3.25	0.02
9.	mazowieckie	314	4	1.27	0.00
10.	lubelskie	213	0	0.00	0.00
11.	małopolskie	182	0	0.00	0.00
12.	podkarpackie	160	0	0.00	0.00
13.	podlaskie	118	0	0.00	0.00
14.	śląskie	167	0	0.00	0.00
15.	świętokrzyskie	102	0	0.00	0.00
16.	warmińsko-mazurskie	116	0	0.00	0.00

August was particularly warm this year. The highest temperatures were recorded in Lubusz Land. The mean temperature in that area exceeded 22.5°C and it was 4°C higher than the multiannual norm. The further to the east the lower was the temperature, reaching 18°C in the eastern part of the country. In the majority of the country temperatures exceeded the multiannual norm by 2-3°C.

The first and second decade of September were very warm. The highest temperatures were recorded in the south-west of Poland, ranging from 18 to 20°C. The further to the north-east the lower was the temperature, reaching 16°C in the north-eastern part of the country. In the majority of Poland temperature ranged from 16 to 18°C. The third decade of the month was colder. In the north-eastern regions temperatures reached 10°C. The further to the south-east the higher was the temperature, but reaching only 12°C in Silesian Lowland. The highest temperatures were recorded on the Baltic coast, reaching 12 to 13°C.

In August precipitation was very scarce in the western part of the country, below 20 mm or even 10 mm in the Poznań region. It was lower than the multiannual norm by 70%. In the area from Lesser Poland Upland, through Masovian Lowland and Masurian Lake District precipitation was relatively high, ranging from 50 to more than 120 mm and constituting 100-130% of the multiannual norm. In the majority of areas precipitation was low, ranging from 20 to 50 mm, which was 30-100% of the norm.

In the first decade of September the largest area with low precipitation values, not exceeding 10 mm or at times even below 5 mm was recorded in Lubusz Land and Greater Poland Lowland. Slightly higher precipitation values were recorded in the eastern regions. The highest precipitation (20 to more than 50 mm) was recorded in Lesser Poland Upland, Silesian Beskids, and in the north-eastern part of Poland. In the majority of the country precipitation was scarce, ranging from 10 to 20 mm.

In the second decade of September precipitation values were even lower. In the northern part of the country they ranged from 5 to 10 mm or even less. In the south of Poland precipitation ranged from 10 to 25 mm. The third decade of the month brought more intense precipitation in the north of the country, reaching 20-50 mm, or at times even exceeding 50 mm. Only in Kujawy, Szczecińska Lowland, and in the north-eastern part of Masurian Lake District precipitation was lower, ranging from 10 to 20 mm. Similar values were recorded in the majority of southern regions of Poland.

Weather conditions in the monitored period again have caused an increase of water deficiency in the western part of the country, and led to agricultural drought in the monitored crops. The number of local districts (gminas) affected by drought has dropped from 1700 to 412 and the affected area has decreased by 51.97%. The recorded water deficiency results in yield reduction by at least 20% in relation to the yield obtained in average weather conditions. In this reporting period, particularly adverse weather conditions causing agricultural drought still occurred in a considerable number of gminas in wielkopolskie, zachodniopomorskie, lubuskie, opolskie, dolnośląskie and kujawsko-pomorskie voivodeships.

Executive Director

Prof. dr hab. Wiesław Oleszek

Report prepared by:

Dr hab. Andrzej Doroszewski, prof. nadzw.

Dr hab. Rafał Pudełko

Dr Katarzyna Żyłowska

Mgr Piotr Koza

Mgr Elżbieta Wróblewska