ADMS

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – State Research Institute, in accordance with an Act of the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development has developed the climatic water balance values for all 2478 Polish local districts (gminas) and, on the basis of soil categories, calculated the current risk of agricultural drought for the following crops: maize for grain and maize for silage, potato, sugar beet, hops, tobacco, ground vegetables, fruit shrubs and trees and legumes (fabacea).

In the eleventh reporting period, i.e. from July 1st to August 31st, 2018, IUNG-PIB stated agricultural drought conditions in Poland.

The mean of Climatic Water Balance values, which are the basis for assessing the risk of agricultural drought, was negative and reached -112,8 mm. In relation to the previous reporting period it has dropped by 4.8 mm.

In the western part of the country the area with low CWB values has again increased. The lowest CWB values were still recorded in Poznań and the surrounding area, in Lubusz Land and Silesian Lowland, reaching from -190 to -209 mm. Water deficiency ranging from -170 to -189 mm was recorded in Szczecińska and Wielkopolska Lowlands, and Trzebnickie Hills. In the rest of the country water deficiency ranged from -120 to 169 mm. In the south of Poland water deficiency was lower and ranged from 0 to -100 mm, apart from Siedlecka Upland, where it ranged from 110 to 139 mm.

In the current reporting period drought occurs in the following monitored crops:

• Legumes (fabacea),
• Fruit shrubs,
• Potato,
• Hops,
• Ground vegetables,
• Tobacco,
• Sugar beet,
• Maize for silage,
• Maize for grain.

The number of all local districts (gminas) in Poland at risk of agricultural drought (%) is presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Number of local districts (gminas) at risk of agricultural drought and the share of the area at risk in the country (%).

No.	Crop	Number of local districts (gminas) at risk	Share of local districts (gminas) at risk in Poland [%]
1.	Legumes (fabacea)	587	23.69
2.	Fruit shrubs	538	21.71
3.	Potato	454	18.32
4.	Hops	160	6.46
5.	Ground vegetables	93	3.75
6.	Tobacco	65	2.62
7.	Sugar beet	31	1.25
8.	Maize for silage	9	0.36
9.	Maize for grain	1	0.04

The potential area at risk of agricultural drought in Poland is shown in Table 2.

Table 2. The area at risk of agricultural drought according to crops

No.	Crop	The arable area at risk of agricultural drought [%]
1.	Legumes (fabacea)	11.43
2.	Fruit shrubs	9.53
3.	Potato	6.31
4.	Hops	0.94
5.	Ground vegetables	0.45
6.	Tobacco	0.27
7.	Sugar beet	0.09
8.	Maize for silage	0.01
9.	Maize for grain	0.00

In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts affected by drought have changed. The changes are shown in table 3.

Table 3. Changes in the number of local districts affected by agricultural drought in relations to the previous reporting period (%)

No.	Crop	Percentage
1.	Potato	+10.65
2.	Fruit shrubs	+ 8.43
3.	Legumes (fabacea)	+ 7.14
4.	Hops	+ 3.84
5.	Ground vegetables	+ 2.58
6.	Tobacco	+ 0.52
7.	Sugar beet	+ 1.21
8.	Maize for silage	- 0.12
9.	Maize for grain	- 0.04

In relations to the previous reporting period there have been also changes in the area affected by agricultural drought, presented in table 4.

Table 4. In the area of arable land affected by agricultural drought (%)

No.	Crop	Percentage
1.	Legumes (fabacea)	+ 5.26
2.	Potato	+ 4.82
3.	Fruit shrubs	+ 4.72
4.	Hops	+ 0.56
5.	Ground vegetables	+ 0.30
6.	Tobacco	+ 0.01
7.	Sugar beet	+ 0.09
8.	Maize for silage	+ 0.01
9.	Maize for grain	0.00

In the eleventh reporting period, from July 1st to August 31st 2018, the highest risk of agricultural drought occurred again for legumes (fabacea). In Poland agricultural drought in legumes (fabacea) was recorded in 7 voivodeships, in 587 local districts (gminas), i.e. 23.69% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 11.43% of arable land (increase by 5.26% in relation to the previous reporting period). Detailed data on drought occurrence in legumes (fabacea) in particular voivodeships are presented in table 5.

Table 5. Agricultural drought in legumes (fabacea)

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	lubuskie	82	82	100.00	77.29
2	opolskie	71	65	91.55	19.16
3	dolnośląskie	169	151	89.35	29.30
4	wielkopolskie	226	176	77.88	46.49
5	zachodniopomorskie	114	71	62.28	24.59
6	łódzkie	177	22	12.43	4.23
7	śląskie	167	20	11.98	0.81

In the current reporting period drought occurred also in fruit shrubs. It was recorded in 7 voivodeships, in 538 local districts (gminas), i.e. 21.71% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 9.53% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have grown by 8.43% and 4.72%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in fruit shrubs in particular voivodeships are presented in table 6.

Table 6. Agricultural drought in fruit shrubs

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	lubuskie	82	82	100.00	71.48
2	opolskie	71	62	87.32	14.06
3	dolnośląskie	169	140	82.84	26.11
4	wielkopolskie	226	164	72.57	38.31
5	zachodniopomorskie	114	62	54.39	18.51
6	łódzkie	177	17	9.60	2.74
7	śląskie	167	11	6.59	0.39

In the current reporting period a risk of drought was also recorded for potatoes. In Poland agricultural drought in potatoes was recorded in 7 voivodeships, in 454 local districts (gminas), i.e. w 18.32% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 6.31% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have grown by 10.62% and 4.82%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in potatoes in particular voivodeships are presented in table 7.

Table 7. Agricultural drought in potatoes

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	lubuskie	82	82	100.00	58.63
2	dolnośląskie	169	125	73.96	19.41
3	opolskie	71	48	67.61	6.92
4	wielkopolskie	226	137	60.62	25.87
5	zachodniopomorskie	114	46	40.35	6.07
6	łódzkie	177	11	6.21	1.27
7	śląskie	167	5	2.99	0.09

In the current reporting period a risk of drought was also recorded for hops. It occurred in 5 voivodeships, in 160 local districts (gminas), i.e. 6.46% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 0.94% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have grown by 3.84% and 0.56%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in hops in particular voivodeships are presented in table 8.

Table 8. Agricultural drought in hops

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	lubuskie	82	52	63.41	19.49
2	dolnośląskie	169	67	39.64	2.94
3	wielkopolskie	226	34	15.04	1.91
4	opolskie	71	4	5.63	0.10
5	zachodniopomorskie	114	3	2.63	0.04

In the current reporting period a risk of drought was also recorded for ground vegetables. It occurred in 3 voivodeships, in 93 local districts (gminas), i.e. 3.75% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 0.45% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have grown by 2.58% and 0.30%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in ground vegetables in particular voivodeships are presented in table 9.

Table 9. Agricultural drought in ground vegetables

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	Lubuskie	82	34	41.46	9.92
2	dolnośląskie	169	35	20.71	1.22
3	wielkopolskie	226	24	10.62	0.91

Agricultural drought occurred also in sugar beet. It was recorded in 3 voivodeships, in 31 local district (gminas), i.e. 1.25% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 0.09% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have grown by 1.21% and 0.09%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in sugar beet are presented in table 10.

Table 10. Agricultural drought in sugar beet

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	lubuskie	82	12	14.63	0.95
2	dolnośląskie	169	12	7.10	0.65
3	wielkopolskie	226	7	3.10	0.20

In the current reporting period a risk of drought was also recorded for tobacco. It occurred in 4 voivodeships, in 65 local districts (gminas), i.e. 2.62% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 0.27% of arable land. . In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have grown by 0.52% and 0.01%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in tobacco in particular voivodeships are presented in table 11.

Table 11. Agricultural drought in tobacco

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	lubuskie	82	26	31.71	6.00
2	dolnośląskie	169	23	13.61	0.84
3	wielkopolskie	226	16	7.08	0.50

Agricultural drought occurred also in maize for silage. It was recorded in 2 voivodeships, in 9 local districts (gminas), i.e. 0.36% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 0.01% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in maize for silage in particular voivodeships are presented in table 12.

Table 12. Agricultural drought in maize for silage

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	dolnośląskie	169	7	4.14	0.11
2	lubuskie	82	2	2.44	0.24

Agricultural drought occurred also in maize for grain, in 1 local district (gmina) in lubuskie voivodeship, i.e. 0.04% of all local districts in the country.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in maize for grain are presented in table 13.

Table 13. Agricultural drought in maize for grain

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	lubuskie	82	1	1.22	0.00

July was very warm in the majority of areas in Poland, with temperatures ranging from 18°C to 20°C and exceeding the multiannual norm by more than 2°C. The lowest temperatures were recorded in the north and the south of the country, reaching 16-18°C but also exceeding the norm, by 1-2°C.

The first decade of August was very warm, particularly in Lubusz Land, where temperatures reached from 25 to more than 25.5°C. The further to the east the lower was the temperature, reaching 22°C in the eastern part of the country. In the second and third decade of the month it was slightly colder. In the south-western part of the country temperatures reached from 20 to 22°C (second decade) and from 18 to 19.5°C (in the third). The lowest temperatures were recorded in the north-eastern Poland, ranging from 18 to 19.5°C (in the second decade) and from 15.5 to 16.5°C (in the third).

In July precipitation was very intense, at times exceeding 200 mm. Particularly intense rainfalls occurred in the eastern part of the country, ranging from 100 to 200 mm and constituting from 100 to more than 200% of the norm there. Only in the south-western regions precipitation was less intense, below 50 mm and constituting 70-80% of the multiannual norm.

In August in all three decades precipitation varied across the country. In many regions it did not exceed 5 mm, in some there was complete absence of rainfalls. In each decade of this month the largest area with low precipitation was recorded in the western part of the country and, to a lesser extent, in the eastern regions. The highest precipitation values (from 20-30 to more than 50 mm) were recorded in Lesser Poland Upland and Silesian Beskid (in the first and third decade) and in the south-eastern (the second decade) and north-eastern Poland (in the second and third decade).

July was characterised by high temperatures and intense precipitation at the same time (apart from the south of Poland). In the first decade of August temperatures were very high, but dropped slightly in the second decade of the month. Precipitation distribution in that period varied across the country. The mean CWB value slightly rose, but a considerable decrease in CWB values occurred in the western part of Poland, whilst an increase occurred in the eastern regions.

Weather conditions in the monitored period have caused an increase of water deficiency in the western part of the country, which led to agricultural drought in 9 of monitored crops. The number of local districts (gminas) affected by drought has increased from 410 to 587 and the area has grown by 5.26%. The recorded water deficiency results in yield reduction by at least 20% in relation to the yield obtained in average weather conditions. In this reporting period, particularly adverse weather conditions causing agricultural drought occurred in lubuskie, dolnośląskie, wielkopolskie and zachodniopomorskie voivodeships.

Executive Director

Prof. dr hab. Wiesław Aleksander Oleszek

Report prepared by:

Dr hab. Andrzej Doroszewski, prof. nadzw.

Dr hab. Rafał Pudełko

Dr Katarzyna Żyłowska

Mgr Piotr Koza

Mgr Elżbieta Wróblewska