ADMS

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – State Research Institute, in accordance with an Act of the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development has developed the climatic water balance values for all 2478 Polish local districts (gminas) and, on the basis of soil categories, calculated the current risk of agricultural drought for the following crops: maize for grain and maize for silage, potato, sugar beet, hops, tobacco, ground vegetables, fruit shrubs and trees.

In the twelfth reporting period, i.e. from July 11th to September 10th, 2018, IUNG-PIB stated agricultural drought conditions in Poland.

The mean of Climatic Water Balance values, which are the basis for assessing the risk of agricultural drought, was negative and reached -94 mm. In relation to the previous reporting period it has increased by 18 mm.

In the western part of the country the area with low CWB values has again increased. The lowest CWB values were still recorded in Poznań and the surrounding area, in Lubusz Land and Silesian Lowland, reaching from -200 to -229 mm. Water deficiency ranging from -180 to -199 mm was recorded in Szczecińska and Wielkopolska Lowlands, and Trzebnickie Hills. In the rest of the country water deficiency ranged from -160 to 179 mm. In the east of Poland water deficiency was lower and ranged from 0 to -100 mm, apart from Siedlecka Upland, Chełmińskie and Stargardzkie Lake Districts, and Żuławy, where it ranged from 120 to 139 mm.

In the current reporting period drought occurs in the following monitored crops:

• Fruit shrubs,
• Potato,
• Hops,
• Ground vegetables,
• Sugar beet,
• Tobacco,
• Maize for silage,
• Maize for grain,
• Fruit trees.

The number of all local districts (gminas) in Poland at risk of agricultural drought (%) is presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Number of local districts (gminas) at risk of agricultural drought and the share of the area at risk in the country (%).

No.	Crop	Number of local districts (gminas) at risk	Share of local districts (gminas) at risk in Poland [%]
1.	Fruit shrubs	631	25.46
2.	Potato	566	22.84
3.	Hops	356	14.37
4.	Ground vegetables	265	10.69
5.	Sugar beet	254	10.26
6.	Tobacco	160	6.46
7.	Maize for silage	59	2.38
8.	Maize for grain	34	1.37
9.	Fruit trees	18	0.73

The potential area at risk of agricultural drought in Poland is shown in Table 2.

Table 2. The area at risk of agricultural drought according to crops

No.	Crop	The arable area at risk of agricultural drought [%]
1.	Fruit shrubs	15.21
2.	Potato	13.03
3.	Hops	4.60
4.	Sugar beet	3.32
5.	Ground vegetables	2.94
6.	Tobacco	1.67
7.	Maize for silage	0.33
8.	Maize for grain	0.17
9.	Fruit trees	0.12

In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts affected by drought have changed. The changes are shown in table 3.

Table 3. Changes in the number of local districts affected by agricultural drought in relations to the previous reporting period (%)

No.	Crop	Percentage
1.	Sugar beet	+ 9.01
2.	Hops	+ 7.91
3.	Ground vegetables	+ 6.94
4.	Potato	+ 4.52
5.	Tobacco	+ 3.84
6.	Maize for silage	+ 2.02
7.	Fruit shrubs	+ 1.77
8.	Maize for grain	+ 1.33
9.	Fruit trees	+ 0.73

In relations to the previous reporting period there have been also changes in the area affected by agricultural drought, presented in table 4.

Table 4. In the area of arable land affected by agricultural drought (%)

No.	Crop	Percentage
1.	Potato	+ 6.72
2.	Fruit shrubs	+ 5.68
3.	Hops	+ 4.56
4.	Sugar beet	+ 3.32
5.	Ground vegetables	+ 2.49
6.	Tobacco	+ 1.40
7.	Maize for silage	+ 0.31
8.	Maize for grain	+ 0.17
9.	Fruit trees	+ 0.12

In the twelfth reporting period, from July 11th to September 10th 2018, the highest risk of agricultural drought occurred again for fruit shrubs. In Poland agricultural drought in fruit shrubs was recorded in 8 voivodeships, in 631 local districts (gminas), i.e. 25.46% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 15.21% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, both the number of local districts and the area at risk have increased by 1.77 and 5.69%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in fruit shrubs in particular voivodeships are presented in table 5.

Table 5. Agricultural drought in fruit shrubs

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	lubuskie	82	82	100.00	92.98
2.	dolnośląskie	169	164	97.04	37.15
3.	opolskie	71	65	91.55	17.22
4.	wielkopolskie	226	196	86.73	62.01
5.	zachodniopomorskie	114	83	72.81	41.78
6.	łódzkie	177	29	16.38	6.88
7.	śląskie	167	7	4.19	0.17
8.	kujawsko-pomorskie	144	5	3.47	0.40

A risk of drought was also recorded for potatoes. In Poland agricultural drought in potatoes was recorded in 8 voivodeships, in 566 local districts (gminas), i.e. w 22.84% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 13.03% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have grown by 10.62% and 6.72%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in potatoes in particular voivodeships are presented in table 6.

Table 6. Agricultural drought in potatoes

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	lubuskie	82	82	100.00	90.25
2.	dolnośląskie	169	156	92.31	31.83
3.	wielkopolskie	226	183	80.97	55.03
4.	zachodniopomorskie	114	74	64.91	31.18
5.	opolskie	71	46	64.79	11.45
6.	łódzkie	177	22	12.43	4.80
7.	kujawsko-pomorskie	144	2	1.39	0.02
8.	śląskie	167	1	0.60	0.01

In the current reporting period a risk of drought was also recorded for hops. It occurred in 6 voivodeships, in 356 local districts (gminas), i.e. 14.37% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 4.60% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have grown by 9.91% and 4.56%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in hops in particular voivodeships are presented in table 7.

Table 7. Agricultural drought in hops

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	lubuskie	82	82	100.00	66.71
2.	dolnośląskie	169	109	64.50	11.19
3.	wielkopolskie	226	115	50.88	15.61
4.	zachodniopomorskie	114	40	35.09	5.20
5.	opolskie	71	7	9.86	0.44
6.	łódzkie	177	3	1.69	0.32

In the current reporting period a risk of drought was also recorded for ground vegetables. It occurred in 5 voivodeships, in 265 local districts (gminas), i.e. 10.69% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 2.94% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have grown by 6.94% and 2.49%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in ground vegetables in particular voivodeships are presented in table 8.

Table 8. Agricultural drought in ground vegetables

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	lubuskie	82	82	100.00	57.12
2.	dolnośląskie	169	82	48.52	7.44
3.	wielkopolskie	226	73	32.30	6.15
4.	zachodniopomorskie	114	27	23.68	3.38
5.	opolskie	71	1	1.41	0.00

Agricultural drought occurred also in sugar beet. It was recorded in 5 voivodeships, in 254 local district (gminas), i.e. 10.26% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 3.32% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have grown by 9.01% and 3.32%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in sugar beet are presented in table 9.

Table 9. Agricultural drought in sugar beet

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	lubuskie	82	82	100.00	36.65
2.	dolnośląskie	169	79	46.75	8.98
3.	wielkopolskie	226	64	28.32	12.65
4.	zachodniopomorskie	114	27	23.68	6.10
5.	opolskie	71	2	2.82	0.02

In the current reporting period a risk of drought was also recorded for tobacco. It occurred in 4 voivodeships, in 160 local districts (gminas), i.e. 6.46% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 1.67% of arable land. . In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have grown by 3.84% and 1.40%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in tobacco in particular voivodeships are presented in table 10.

Table 10. Agricultural drought in tobacco

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	lubuskie	82	79	96.34	43.11
2.	wielkopolskie	226	37	16.37	2.45
3.	dolnośląskie	169	33	19.53	1.93
4.	zachodniopomorskie	114	11	9.65	1.18

Agricultural drought occurred also in maize for silage. It was recorded in 3 voivodeships, in 59 local districts (gminas), i.e. 2.38% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 0.33% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have grown by 2.02% and 0.31%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in maize for silage in particular voivodeships are presented in table 11.

Table 11. Agricultural drought in maize for silage

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	lubuskie	82	53	64.63	10.82
2.	zachodniopomorskie	114	4	3.51	0.41
3.	dolnośląskie	169	2	1.18	0.00

Agricultural drought occurred also in maize for grain. It was recorded in 2 voivodeships, in 34 local districts (gminas), i.e. 1.37% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 0.17% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have grown by 1.33% and 0.17%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in maize for grain are presented in table 12.

Table 12. Agricultural drought in maize for grain

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	lubuskie	82	32	39.02	5.75
2.	zachodniopomorskie	114	2	1.75	0.08

In the current reporting period drought occurred also in fruit trees. It was recorded in 2 voivodeships, in 18 local districts (gminas), i.e. 0.73% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 0.12% of arable land. In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of local districts as well as the area affected by drought have grown by 0.73% and 0.12%, respectively.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in fruit trees are presented in table 13.

Table 13. Agricultural drought in fruit trees

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	lubuskie	82	17	20.73	4.41
2.	zachodniopomorskie	114	1	0.88	0.00

July was very warm in Poland, with temperatures ranging from 18°C to 20°C in the majority of areas and exceeding the multiannual norm by more than 2°C. The lowest temperatures were recorded in the north and the south of the country, reaching 16-18°C but also exceeding the norm, by 1-2°C.

August was also very warm, particularly in Lubusz Land, where the mean temperature exceeded 22.5°C and it was 4°C higher than the multiannual norm. The further to the east the lower was the temperature, reaching 18°C in the eastern part of the country. In the majority of the country temperatures exceeded the multiannual norm by 2-3°C.

The first decade of September was very warm. The highest temperatures were recorded in the south-west of Poland, ranging from 18 to 20°C. The further to the north-east the lower was the temperature, reaching 16°C in the north-eastern part of the country. In the majority of Poland temperature ranged from 16 to 18°C.

In July precipitation was very intense, at times exceeding 200 mm. Particularly intense rainfalls occurred in the eastern part of the country, ranging from 100 to 200 mm and constituting from 100 to more than 200% of the norm there. Only in the south-western regions precipitation was less intense, below 50 mm and constituting 70-80% of the multiannual norm.

In August precipitation was very scarce in the western part of the country, below 20 mm or even 10 mm in the Poznań region. It was lower than the multiannual norm by 70%. In the area from Lesser Poland Upland, through Masovian Lowland and Masurian Lake District precipitation was relatively high, ranging from 50 to more than 120 mm and constituting 100-130% of the multiannual norm. In the majority of areas precipitation was low, ranging from 20 to 50 mm, which was 30-100% of the norm.

In the first decade of September the largest area with low precipitation values, not exceeding 10 mm or at times even below 5 mm was recorded in Lubusz Land and Greater Poland Lowland. Slightly higher precipitation values were recorded in the eastern regions. The highest precipitation (20 to more than 50 mm) was recorded in Lesser Poland Upland, Silesian Beskids, and in the north-eastern part of Poland. In the majority of the country precipitation was scarce, ranging from 10 to 20 mm.

Weather conditions in the monitored period again have caused an increase of water deficiency in the western part of the country, and led to agricultural drought in 9 of the monitored crops. The number of local districts (gminas) affected by drought has increased from 587 to 631 and the affected area has grown by 6.72%. The recorded water deficiency results in yield reduction by at least 20% in relation to the yield obtained in average weather conditions. In this reporting period, particularly adverse weather conditions causing agricultural drought occurred in lubuskie, zachodniopomorskie, dolnośląskie, wielkopolskie and opolskie voivodeships.

Executive Director

Prof. dr hab. Wiesław Aleksander Oleszek

Report prepared by:

Dr hab. Andrzej Doroszewski, prof. nadaw.

Dr hab. Rafał Pudełko

Dr Katarzyna Żyłowska

Mgr Piotr Koza

Mgr Elżbieta Wróblewska