ADMS

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – State Research Institute, in accordance with an Act of the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development has developed the climatic water balance values for all 2478 Polish local districts (gminas) and, on the basis of soil categories, calculated the current risk of agricultural drought for the following crops: winter and spring cereals, maize for grain and maize for silage, potato, sugar beet, hops, tobacco, ground vegetables, fruit shrubs and trees, strawberries and legumes (fabacea).

In the eighth reporting period, i.e. from June 1st to July 31st 2018, IUNG-PIB stated agricultural drought conditions in Poland.

The mean of Climatic Water Balance values, which are the basis for assessing the risk of agricultural drought, was negative and reached -109.3 mm. Again, in relation to the previous reporting period it has risen, this time by 12.0 mm.

In vast areas of the country the CWB values have risen significantly, in some regins even by 10-20 mm. In the western and northern parts of Poland the CWB values dropped by less than 10 mm. The lowest CWB values were still recorded in Poznań and the surrounding area, and water deficiency in that part of the country was still ranging from -190 to -199 mm. A very high water deficiency ranging from -170 to -189 mm was still recorded in the Szczecińska Lowland, Żarnowiecka Upland and Zielona Góra Uplands, Trzebnickie Hills, Lubin Upland and Legnicka Plain. In the rest of the country water deficiency ranged from -100 to 169 mm. In the south of Poland water deficiency was lower and ranged from 0 to -100 mm, apart from Wołomińska, Garwolińska and Łukowska Plains, where it ranged from -120 to -139 mm.

In the current reporting period drought occurs in the following monitored crops:

• Fruit shrubs,
• Legumes (fabacea),
• Tobacco,
• Spring cereals,
• Maize for silage.

The number of all local districts (gminas) in Poland at risk of agricultural drought (%) is presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Number of local districts (gminas) at risk of agricultural drought and the share of the area at risk in the country (%)

No.	Crop	Number of local districts (gminas) at risk	Share of local districts (gminas) at risk in Poland [%]
1.	Fruit shrubs	55	2.22
2.	Legumes (fabacea)	53	2.14
3.	Tobacco	5	0.20
4.	Spring cereals	1	0.04
5.	Maize for silage	1	0.04

The potential area at risk of agricultural drought in Poland is shown in Table 2.

Table 2. The area at risk of agricultural drought according to crops

No.	Crop	The arable area at risk of agricultural drought [%]
1.	Fruit shrubs	0.22
2.	Legumes (fabacea)	0.19
3.	Tobacco	0.00
4.	Spring cereals	0.00
5.	Maize for silage	0.00

In the eighth reporting period, from June 1st to July 31st 2018, the highest risk of agricultural drought occurred for fruit shrubs. In Poland agricultural drought in fruit shrubs was recorded in 5 voivodeships, in 55 local districts (gminas), i.e. 2.22% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 0.22% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in fruit shrubs in particular voivodeships are presented in table 3.

Table 3. Agricultural drought in fruit shrubs

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Udział powierzchni zagrożonej [%]
1.	lubuskie	82	9	10.98	1,09
2.	dolnośląskie	169	15	8.88	0,52
3.	zachodniopomorskie	114	9	7.89	0,68
4.	wielkopolskie	226	16	7.08	0,94
5.	pomorskie	123	6	4.88	0,34

Similarly, agricultural drought was again recorded for legumes (fabacea). Agricultural drought was recorded in 5 voivodeships, in 53 local districts (gminas), i.e. 2.14% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 0.21% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in legumes (fabacea) in particular voivodeships are presented in table 4.

Table 4. Agricultural drought in legumes (fabacea)

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	lubuskie	82	9	10.98	0.72
2.	dolnośląskie	169	14	8.28	0.42
3.	wielkopolskie	226	16	7.08	0.89
4.	zachodniopomorskie	114	8	7.02	0.59
5.	pomorskie	123	6	4.88	0.24

In the current reporting period a risk of drought was also recorded for tobacco. It occurred in 2 voivodeships, in 5 local districts (gminas), i.e. 0.20% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 0.01% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in tobacco in particular voivodeships are presented in table 5.

Table 5. Agricultural drought in tobacco

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Udział powierzchni zagrożonej [%]
1.	zachodniopomorskie	114	3	2.63	0,05
2.	wielkopolskie	226	2	0.88	0,01

A risk of agricultural drought also occurred for spring cereals. In Poland drought in spring cereals was recorded in 1 local district in zachodniopomorskie voivodeship.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in spring cereals in particular voivodeships are presented in table 6.

Table 6. Agricultural drought in spring cereals

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	zachodniopomorskie	114	1	0.88	0.00

A gricultural drought occurred also in maize for silage. Drought occurred in 1 local district (gmina) in zachodniopomorskie voivodeship.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in maize for silage in particular voivodeships are presented in table 7.

Table 7. Agricultural drought in maize for silage

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	zachodniopomorskie	114	1	0.88	0.00

The first decade of June was very warm. In the western part of the country temperatures reached from 20 to even more than 20.5°C. In the rest of the areas temperatures were also considerably high, between 17 - 20.5°C. The second decade of June was similar, temperatures reached 19 to 20.5°C. Only in the north of the country it was slightly colder, 16.5 to 19°C. The third decade of the month was much colder in all the areas. In the majority of the country temperatures ranged from 15 to 16°C. Only in the north-eastern and north-western regions it was slightly warmer, from 16.5 to 17.5 C.

The first decade of July was not very warm either, with temperatures reaching from 17 to 19°C. The lowest temperatures were recorded in the north-eastern part of the country: 16.5-17°C, and the highest in the south-western regions: 19-19.5°C. In the second decade of the month temperature distribution changed and the highest were recorded to the north-east, ranging from 20 to 20.5°C, while the lowest temperatures occurred to the south-west, from 17 to 19°C. The third decade of July was hot in the whole country. In the vast areas of western and central Poland the air temperature ranged from 22.5°C to 23.5°C. In the rest of the country it was also very warm, from 21.5 to 22.5°C.

In the first decade of June precipitation varied across the country, from very low in the east of Poland (below 5 to 10 mm) to considerably high in the west and south (10 to more than 50 mm). In the second decade precipitation was very scarce (up to 5 mm) or there was even a complete lack of rainfall in the north of the country. In the south of Poland precipitation ranged from 5 to 50 mm (especially in the south-eastern part of the country).

In the third decade of the month precipitation was more intense, reaching 15-50 mm in the majority of the country or even exceeding 50 mm in the south. Only in the north-western regions precipitation was scarce, reaching 5 to 15 mm, and there were still some areas with a complete absence of rainfall.

The first decade of July was characterized by very scarce precipitation in the majority of the country, reaching the maximum of 10 mm, or absence of precipitation in some regions. Only in the eastern and western regions of Poland it reached 10-20 mm. In the second decade, on the other hand, precipitation was very intense, reaching even 200 mm. Particularly intense rainfalls occurred in the western part of Pomeranian an Greater Poland Lake Districts, ranging from 100 to 200 mm. Slightly lower precipitation values were recorded in Lesser Poland and Silesian Lowlands, ranging from 75 to 150 mm. Only in the western and south-eastern regions precipitation was less intense, below 50 mm.

In the third decade of July in the western part of the country precipitation was very scarce, from below 5 to 10 mm, while in the north-eastern and south-eastern regions it was more intense, ranging from 10 to more than 50 mm.

The first two decades of June were characterised by particularly high temperatures and insolation (especially in the north of the country). The values of the abovementioned meteorological factors were considerably higher than multiannual norms. At the same time precipitation in this period was considerably low. The third decade of June and the two decades of July, however, were colder. In the first decade of June precipitation was quite abundant in the majority of areas, and similarly in July, especially in the eastern part of the country, precipitation was quite intense. As a result, the mean of Climatic Water Balance values has increased. It also contributed to lowering the water deficiency for many species and groups of plants. However, water deficiency was still present and resulting in agricultural drought for five of the monitored crops.

Executive Director

Prof. dr hab. Wiesław Aleksander Oleszek

Report prepared by:

Dr hab. Andrzej Doroszewski, prof. nadaw.

Dr hab. Rafał Pudełko

Dr Katarzyna Żyłowska

Mgr Piotr Koza

Mgr Elżbieta Wróblewska