ADMS

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – State Research Institute, in accordance with an Act of the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development has developed the climatic water balance values for all 2478 Polish local districts (gminas) and, on the basis of soil categories, calculated the current risk of agricultural drought for the following crops: winter and spring cereals, rape and turnip rape, sugar beet, fruit shrubs and trees, and strawberries.

In the second reporting period, i.e. from April 1st to May 31st 2018, IUNG-PIB stated agricultural drought conditions in Poland.

The mean of Climatic Water Balance values, which are the basis for assessing the risk of agricultural drought, was negative and reached -90 mm. In relation to the previous reporting period it has dropped by 21 mm. The lowest CWB values in this sixty-day reporting period were recorded in Poznań and the neighbouring areas, ranging from -200 to -209 mm. A considerable water deficiency was recorded in the Lowlands: Wielkopolska, Szczecińska, Mazowiecka, Greater Poland Lake District, in the region of Lubusz Land and Sandomierska Basin. Water deficiency exceeding 150 mm was recorded in the majority of the country.

In the current reporting period drought occurs in the following crops:

• spring cereal,
• winter cereal,
• strawberries,
• fruit shrubs,
• fruit trees.

The number of all local districts (gminas) in Poland at risk of agricultural drought (%) is presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Number of local districts (gminas) at risk of agricultural drought and the share of the area at risk in the country (%)

No.	Crop	Number of local districts (gminas) at risk	Share of local districts (gminas) at risk in Poland [%]
1.	Spring cereals	2285	92.20
2.	Winter cereals	2221	89.30
3.	Strawberries	2198	88.70
4.	Fruit shrubs	2198	88.70
5.	Fruit trees	580	23.41

The potential area at risk of agricultural drought in Poland is shown in Table 2.

Table 2. The area at risk of agricultural drought according to crops

No.	Crop	The arable area at risk of agricultural drought [%]
1.	Spring cereal	48.90
2.	Strawberries	39.30
3.	Fruit shrubs	39.30
4.	Winter cereal	37.28
5.	Fruit trees	4.87

In the second reporting period from April 1st to May 31st 2018 the highest risk of agricultural drought occurred for spring cereals. In Poland agricultural drought occurred in all voivodeships, 10 of them recorded drought in all the local districts (gminas). Drought occurred in 2285 local districts (gminas) i.e. 92.21% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 48.90% of arable land. Particularly large areas affected by drought were in lubuskie, wielkopolskie and mazowieckie voivodeships. Table 3 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in particular voivodeshpis.

Table 3. Agricultural drought in spring cereals

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	kujawsko-pomorskie	144	144	100.00	56.82
2.	lubuskie	82	82	100.00	80.00
3.	łódzkie	177	177	100.00	53.95
4.	mazowieckie	314	314	100.00	68.10
5.	opolskie	71	71	100.00	31.11
6.	podlaskie	118	118	100.00	49.15
7.	świętokrzyskie	102	102	100.00	40.64
8.	warmińsko-mazurskie	116	116	100.00	32.40
9.	wielkopolskie	226	226	100.00	79.66
10.	zachodniopomorskie	114	114	100.00	50.55
11.	pomorskie	123	120	97.56	55.12
12.	lubelskie	213	207	97.18	40.65
13.	dolnośląskie	169	151	89.35	31.15
14.	podkarpackie	160	119	74.38	22.89
15.	śląskie	167	124	74.25	28.98
16.	małopolskie	182	100	54.95	5.82

In the current reporting period there was a particularly high risk of agricultural drought for strawberries, recorded in all the voivodeships, in 8 of them reaching 100% of the local districts (gminas). In Poland agricultural drought occurred in 2198 local districts (gminas) i.e. 88.70% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 39.30% of arable land. Particularly large areas affected by drought were in lubuskie, wielkopolskie and mazowieckie voivodeships. Table 4 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in particular voivodeshpis.

Table 4. Agricultural drought in strawberries

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	kujawsko-pomorskie	144	144	100.00	43.03
2.	lubuskie	82	82	100.00	74.55
3.	łódzkie	177	177	100.00	39.45
4.	mazowieckie	314	314	100.00	55.66
5.	opolskie	71	71	100.00	26.38
6.	podlaskie	118	118	100.00	39.37
7.	warmińsko-mazurskie	116	116	100.00	22.49
8.	wielkopolskie	226	226	100.00	72.45
9.	świętokrzyskie	102	101	99.02	31.85
10.	pomorskie	123	120	97.56	40.67
11.	zachodniopomorskie	114	111	97.37	35.40
12.	lubelskie	213	207	97.18	30.63
13.	dolnośląskie	169	141	83.43	29.08
14.	podkarpackie	160	101	63.12	20.83
15.	śląskie	167	102	61.08	17.26
16.	małopolskie	182	67	36.81	3.15

A considerable risk of agricultural drought occurred also for winter cereals, recorded in all the voivodeships, in 8 of them reaching 100% of the local districts (gminas). In Poland agricultural drought occurred in 2221 local districts (gminas) ie. 89.63% of all local dirsticts in the country, in the area of 37.28% of arable land. Particularly large areas affected by drought were in lubuskie, wielkopolskie and mazowieckie voivodeships. Table 5 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in particular voivodeshpis.

Table 5. Agricultural drought in winter cereals

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	kujawsko-pomorskie	144	144	100.00	38.92
2.	lubuskie	82	82	100.00	71.70
3.	łódzkie	177	177	100.00	40.32
4.	mazowieckie	314	314	100.00	50.54
5.	opolskie	71	71	100.00	24.52
6.	podlaskie	118	118	100.00	38.06
7.	warmińsko-mazurskie	116	116	100.00	22.81
8.	wielkopolskie	226	226	100.00	70.54
9.	świętokrzyskie	102	101	99.02	30.10
10.	zachodniopomorskie	114	112	98.25	33.10
11.	pomorskie	123	120	97.56	36.64
12.	lubelskie	213	207	97.18	26.08
13.	dolnośląskie	169	142	84.02	28.35
14.	śląskie	167	114	68.26	20.99
15.	podkarpackie	160	104	65.00	20.42
16.	małopolskie	182	73	40.11	3.61

A high risk of agricultural drought occurred also for fruit shrubs, recorded in all the voivodeships, in 8 of them reaching 100% of the local districts (gminas). In Poland agricultural drought occurred in 2198 local districts (gminas) ie. 88.70% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 39.29% of arable land. Particularly large areas affected by drought were in lubuskie, wielkopolskie and mazowieckie voivodeships. Table 6 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in particular voivodeshpis.

Table 6. Agricultural drought in fruit shrubs

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	kujawsko-pomorskie	144	144	100.00	43.03
2.	lubuskie	82	82	100.00	74.55
3.	łódzkie	177	177	100.00	39.45
4.	mazowieckie	314	314	100.00	55.66
5.	opolskie	71	71	100.00	26.38
6.	podlaskie	118	118	100.00	39.37
7.	warmińsko-mazurskie	116	116	100.00	22.49
8.	wielkopolskie	226	226	100.00	72.32
9.	świętokrzyskie	102	101	99.02	31.85
10.	pomorskie	123	120	97.56	40.67
11.	zachodniopomorskie	114	111	97.37	35.40
12.	lubelskie	213	207	97.18	30.63
13.	dolnośląskie	169	141	83.43	29.08
14.	podkarpackie	160	101	63.12	20.83
15.	śląskie	167	102	61.08	17.26
16.	małopolskie	182	67	36.81	3.15

Slightly lower risk of agricultural drought occurred also for fruit trees, recorded in 13 voivodeships, in 580 local districts (gminas) i.e. 23.41% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 4.87% of arable land. Table 6 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in particular voivodeshpis.

Table 7. Agricultural drought in fruit trees

No.	Voivodeship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1.	wielkopolskie	226	153	67.70	19.62
2.	lubuskie	82	55	67.07	19.76
3.	dolnośląskie	169	75	44.38	7.78
4.	kujawsko-pomorskie	144	51	35.42	4.45
5.	zachodniopomorskie	114	34	29.82	3.19
6.	mazowieckie	314	89	28.34	4.93
7.	podkarpackie	160	37	23.12	7.17
8.	świętokrzyskie	102	18	17.65	1.03
9.	pomorskie	123	21	17.07	1.27
10.	opolskie	71	12	16.90	0.49
11.	lubelskie	213	29	13.62	1.39
12.	warmińsko-mazurskie	116	4	3.45	0.08
13.	podlaskie	118	2	1.69	0.10
14.	łódzkie	177	0	0.00	0.00
15.	małopolskie	182	0	0.00	0.00
16.	śląskie	167	0	0.00	0.00

April was warm this year, the temperatures ranged from 9 to more than 14°C. The highest temperatures were recorded in the south (above 14°C), and exceeded the multiannual norm by 6°C. The further to the north, the lower was the temperature: ranging from 8 to 11°C, however, it was still 2-3°C higher than the multiannual norm.

In the first decade of May it was the warmest in the south-eastern part of the country, where the temperatures exceeded 17°C, and the coldest in the north-western regions, where the temperatures ranged from 13 to 14°C. In the second decade of the month the south-eastern regions were the coldest, with temperatures ranging from below 13°C to 14°C. The highest temperatures were recorded in the north, ranging from 15 to more than 16.5°C. The third decade of May was the warmest in the western part of the country, with temperatures exceeding 20°C, while in the south it was slightly lower, 18 to 20°C.

In April particularly low precipitation (below 10 mm) was recorded in the Kraków-Częstochowa and Silesian Uplands. Low precipitation (10-20 mm) was also recorded in Lesser Poland and Masovian Lowlands and in Sandomierska Basin, where they constituted 20-40% of the multiannual norm. Only in the north and east precipitation was more intense, from 40 to 60 mm and constituted 100-140% of the norm. In the vast majority of the country precipitation ranged from 20 to 40 mm, i.e. 40-100% of the norm.

In the first decade of May the most intense precipitation was recorded in the southern regions of the country and in the northern part of the Pomeranian Lake District: from 20 to 40 mm. In the rest of the country it was very low, ranging from 5 (or even less) to 20 mm.

In the second decade of the month precipitation was considerably more intense, particularly in the southern part of the country, ranging from 15 to more than 50 mm. The highest precipitation was recorded in the Kraków-Częstochowa Upland, the southern part of Greater Poland and Masovian Uplands, and in Sandomierska Basin. In the north-western regions of Poland precipitation was scarce, below 5 mm.

In the third decade of May, precipitation was scarce in the vast areas of western Poland, even below 5 mm. Only in the north-eastern part of the country precipitation ranged from 20 to more than 50 mm.

We conclude that both April and May were characterised by very high temperatures and insolation. The values of the abovementioned meteorological factors were higher than multiannual norms. At the same time precipitation in this period was considerably low, which caused the decrease of CWB values meaning there was water deficiency for plants. At the moment considerable water deficiency may reduce the yield of many crops at least by 20% at the local district level in comparison to the yield obtained in average multiannual weather conditions.

Executive Director

Prof. dr. hab. Wiesław Aleksander Oleszek

Report prepared by:

Dr hab. Andrzej Doroszewski, prof. nadw.

Dr hab. Rafał Pudełko

Dr Katarzyna Żyłowska

Mgr Piotr Koza

Mgr Elżbieta Wróblewska