ADMS

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation - State Research Institute in accordance with an Act from the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development has developed the climatic water balance for all Polish municipalities (3,064 municipalities), and based on the soils categories have identified in those municipalities the current agricultural drought risk for the following crops: winter and spring cereals, corn for grain and silage, oilseed rape and turnip rape, sugar beet, potatoes, hops, tobacco, field vegetables, shrubs and fruit trees and strawberries and legumes.

In the seven reporting period, i.e. from June 01 to July 31, 2015, IUNG-PIB does not state a risk of agricultural drought in Poland. The values of climatic water balance (CWB), which are the basis to assess the risk of drought, are negative but these values for above-mentioned crop are much higher than the critical value.

In the seventh reporting period, i.e. from 1 June to 31 July 2015 years the area particularly vulnerable to water deficit was the Lublin region (particularly its northern regions). In this area water shortage ranged from -180 to -199 mm. Very low values of climatic water balance also occurred in southern areas of the Mazowieckie, Podlaskie and Lubelskie voivodeships. CWB values in these areas ranged from -160 to -179 mm. Low CWB values continues to occur in the eastern part of Łódzkie voivodeship and in the northern regions of Mazowieckie and Podlaskie voivodeships ranged from -150 to -169 mm, they were very similar to those from the previous sixty days period. In the current period high water scarcity were also noted in the northern regions of Świętokrzyskie and Podkarpackie voivodeship reaching 150 to -169 mm.

During the sixty days period, the value of CWB on Polish territory compared to the previous reporting period were slightly reduced. On average CWB value compared to the previous period were lower by 7 mm. However, in northern areas an increase in the CWB value was measured (up to 50-70 mm), while in the southern parts significant reductions up to 80 mm.

In June the lowest temperature occurred in the north of the country and the highest in the southern parts of Poland. In the first ten days of June on the Baltic coast and in Żuławy recorded below 15°C. In the Mazury Lake District. Podlasie Lowland. and in the Lubuskie region average air temperature was 15°C. In Polish Highlands, Śląska and Mazowiecka Lowland a temperature was recorded from 16.5°C to 17.5°C. In contrast, the highest temperature (above 17.5°C) was recorded in the Sandomierz Basin and in the vicinity of Krakow and Opole.

In the first twenty days of July there have been very similar distribution of air temperature on Polish territory. The lowest air temperature was recorded in the northern and north - eastern parts of the Poland. In contrast, the highest temperature of the month was recorded in the south-western areas of the country. On the Baltic coast and in Żuławy was recorded temperature below 18.5°C while second ten days was colder reaching 16 °C. In the southern part of the Pomorskie and Mazurskie Lakeland, Podlasie Lowland air temperature ranged from 18.5°C to 19.5°C while in the second ten days period was colder by 2 °C. On the Polish Highlands recorded a temperature of 19.5°C to 21°C while in the second ten days period was colder by 2 °C. In contrast, the highest temperature (above 21.5°C) was recorded on Ziemia Lubuska and the Śląska Lowland while in the second ten days period on Śląska Lowland (20°C). In the third ten days of July air temperature distribution was very similar to that recorded in June, this month isotherms were clearly a parallel course. The lowest air temperature was measured in the north of the country, and the highest in the southern areas. The low air temperature even below 16.5°C were recorded in Pomorski Lake District, slightly warmer was at the Mazury Lake District  (16.5°C to 17.5°C). Wielkopolski Lakeland, the northern regions of Mazowsze Lowland and southern regions of Podlasie Lowland recorded temperatures from 17.5°C to 18.5°C. The Wielkopolska Lowland, northern part of the Śląska Lowland and southern regions of Mazowsze Lowland and Lublin Upland air temperature ranged from 18.5 °C to 19.5 °C. In the Polish Highlands temperatures from 19.5°C to 20.0°C was recorded. In contrast, the highest temperature (above 20.5 °C) was recorded in southern areas of the Slaska Lowland and the Carpathian Foothills.

Precipitation in June of this year were characterized by a very large diversity in the country. Relatively high precipitation occurred in the south - west and the northern part of the Poland from 60 to 90 mm and sometimes even exceeded 90 mm. By contrast, relatively small and very low rainfall was recorded in eastern and especially in northern eastern and southern eastern parts of the country and in the Central Polish Lowlands waist of less than 20 mm to 40 mm.

In the first twenty days of July in most parts of the country were relatively low rainfall (10 to 20 mm). Greater than 50 mm rainfall was recorded only in the south-eastern regions of the Podkarpackie Viovodship in the first ten days and sites in different parts of Poland in the second ten days of this month which is related to the type of storm rainfall. However, in the third ten days of July relatively high rainfall was at the northern part of the country ranging from 30 to more than 50 mm. Similar size rainfall also occurred in the south-eastern part of the country. In the rest of Poland rainfall was less than 5 to 20 mm.

Throughout the country there is still a large deficit of water. The lack of water for crops manifests itself in all monitored crops substantial reduction in yields. The shortage of water is greater and last longer, the discount yield id higher. The occurrence of critical CWB value means that the average yield reduction in the local district scale by 20% in a given year as compared to the yields obtained with the multi-annual average weather conditions. Thus, if agricultural drought is declared, it means that the final yields in a given local district for a crop that threshold values were exceeded, will be lower by 20% in a given year compared to the yields obtained with the multi-annual average weather conditions. However, it happens very often that the CWB are close to the critical value, but they are not exceeded, this means that the average loss in yield in the local district does not exceed 20%. It should be noted that in such cases the individual farms of crop loss may be 30% and even more. It should be stated emphatically that in the case of reporting that the drought has not occurred within the meaning of the Act, it should be noted that any shortage of water for crops results in a reduction in crop yields and drought that occurred in the area, causing a loss in a farm depending on its severity.