ADMS

In the seventh reporting period, i.e. from 1 June to 31 July 2011, we can find no threat of agricultural drought conditions in Poland.

The values of climatic water balance (CWB) in large areas of the country are positive (except for the southern part of the Wielkopolska voivodeship and the northern part of the Pomorskie voivodeship). Throughout Poland, CWB values are much higher than the critical value.

Compared to the sixth report there was a very large increase in the value of CWB in the whole of the country. On average, the CWB rose by 74 mm, which means that in the sixty-day period, the water deficit for crops not only diminished, but today there is a problem with excess water.

This year's June was warm. The warmest area, from 18 to 19°C was in central Poland. To the north and south the air temperature was lower at 17-18°C and 16-17°C respectively. In Dolny Śląsk, Wielkopolska and mid Mazowsze, the air temperature was higher than the long-term average (1971-2000) by 2-2.5°C, and at the foothills of the Carpathians by 1.5°C.

The air temperature in July was varied. The western and south-western parts of the country were the coldest 16-17.5^oC, while the warmest was in the eastern parts of the Poland, 18-19^oC.

Precipitation in June was very diverse, ranging from very low (10-25 mm) in Wilekopolska, Dolny Śląsk, Gdańsk Coastlands, Północnomazowieckiej Lowlands, Przedborski Uplands and the Nida Basin, where it accounted for 50-70% of the long-term norm. The high precipitation was measured in the south-eastern and southern parts of the country, where it ranged from 50 to 120 mm (100-150% of the norm).

The precipitation in July this year was very abundant over a large area of the country. The greatest rainfall occurred in the east and in a narrow strip on the western edge of Poland, from 160 to 300 mm. Lesser rainfall, but still in high amounts from 100 to 160 mm occurred in the rest of the country.

The weather conditions in recent weeks have been characterised with significant rainfalls and storms, which will causes big problems for this year's harvest. The cereal harvest due to frequent precipitation and high moisture of grain will be delayed. Due to a high humidity, there is also a high risk of damage to crops caused by fungi. Another negative phenomenon caused by the current weather conditions are causing pre-harvest sprouting in cereals, which has already occurred in winter triticale and rye, it is possible that this problem may also apply to wheat. Many fields are wet, which means that entering them with heavy equipment is difficult or even impossible.

According to an assessment from IUNG-PIB these adverse weather conditions were caused by water deficit at the beginning of the growing season, and this excess water may cause winter wheat yields to be lower by 19%, 10% rye, and spring cereals by 6-8%, compared to the average long-term average for yields. Such high rainfall also means that the potato crop forecast foresees a significant drop in yields by about 18%. The recent weather conditions are only favour the cultivation of sugar beet and maize, and may result in increased yields of these crops, by about 10% of the average long-term yields.