ADMS

In the third reporting period, i.e. from 21 April to 20 June 2011, we confirm a threat of agricultural drought in some regions of Poland. The value of climatic water balance (CWB), on the basis of which the risk assessment of drought is calculated in most parts of areas of Poland was negative. The drought risk area (presented in the previous report) has grown in all directions, to the greatest extent in the east and south-east.

Compared to the second report, in almost all localities investigated, there has been a decrease in the value of climatic water balance (except for small areas near Tarnow, Suwalki, and Bielsko-Biala). The average CWB decline for the Poland was 14 mm; this means a further widening of the deficit of water for crops.

There has been a considerable increase in the threat of drought as compared to the situation 10 days before. The increase of drought risk was calculated for 110 local districts. Currently, there is a drought in 1254 Polish local district (40.9%), concentrated in 12 voivodeship:

Eleven voivodeships increased their agricultural drought risk area, while a decrease occurred only in the Lubelskie voivodeship. Drought in Poland is now at a level of 24.4% on the surface of arable land (10 days ago it was at 21.7%).

Drought occurs in crops:
• winter cereals
• spring cereals,
• Corn for silage
• Rape and turnip rape
• hops
• tobacco
• vegetables,
• shrubs
• fruit trees
• strawberries
• legumes
grown on soils of all categories of vulnerability to drought.

The lowest values of CWB, similar to ten days ago, were found in the Wielkopolskie and Lubuskie voivodeships, except that now these values are lower by about 10 mm. In the area of both voivodeships, the CWB values range from -170 to -239 mm. It is also worth noting that a big drop in the value of CWB occurred in areas where previously there was no threat of drought, this is the Warmia and Mazury, Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, Świętokrzyskie, south of the  Łódzkie voivodeship and Śląskie.

Still in the south of the country in the southern parts of voivodeship: Śląskie, Małopolska and Podkarpackie CWB values were greater than -50 mm.

April of this year was very warm. The highest temperature occurred in the Wielkopolsko-Kujawskim Lakeland reaching 11-12^oC and the Lubuskie Lake District, even more than 12^oC, in other areas of the country the air temperature was also high from 9 to 11°C. Only in the eastern part of the Embankment of Zachodniopomorskie near Suwalki and the temperature was slightly lower and amounted to 7-9^oC, but it was higher than the average long-term value (in three decades from 1971 to 2000) from 1 to 2°C. In the eastern part of Poland, temperatures in April were higher than the average long term value by 2-3°C, in the western part by 3-4^oC.
This year, April in terms of precipitation was very irregular. Very low rainfall, less than 30 mm occurred in western Poland, which accounted for 50% below the standard of many years. However, in the north-western and western parts of the country rainfall ranged from 10 to 20 mm and even below 10 mm (Wielkopolska), which accounted for approximately 20% of the norm for this region. In the east and south of the country, rainfall was higher, at 40-60 mm (about 100% of normal). The highest rainfall, over 100 mm, occurred in Pogórze Śląskie, Beskid Śląski and Beskid Żywiecki, reaching 150% - 160% of the norm.

The air temperature in May was very diverse. Earlier in the month, almost in the whole of the country were ground frosts (May 2-6), these were particularly acute in Wielkopolska and Kujawy (the temperature dropped even to -7^oC). The other half, especially the last ten days of the month were very warm. The highest temperature occurred (as in April), in the Lubuskie Lake District and the Wielkopolskie (14-15^oC), and the lowest was in the Pobrzeżu Gdanskim (11-12^oC), in the rest of Poland (12-14^oC).

In May, just as in April, the lowest rainfall occurred in Wielkopolska and Kujawy (less than 30 mm), which accounted for 60% of long-term standard. Slightly larger but low rainfall occurred in the eastern part of the Pobrzeże Zachodniopomorskie and in the southeast Lubelskie (30-40 mm, 60-70% of norm). The highest rainfall, as in April, occurred in Pogórze Śląskie, Beskid Śląski and Beskid Żywiecki (80-120 mm, 100% of norm). In the remaining area of Poland, the rainfall ranged from 40 to 80 mm.

The first ten days of June were exceptionally warm. The deterioration of moisture conditions occurred throughout Poland due to high air temperatures, especially in the eastern part of the country. The highest temperatures were in the Lublin area, by more than 21°C. It was also very warm in Wielkopolska - over 20^oC. Only on the coast it was cooler 15-17^oC. Although the rainfall over a wide territory of the country was relatively high, in some places even very high (over 50 mm), as in central Poland (eastern part of Wielkopolskie and Kujawsko-Pomorskie and the western parts of  Łódzkie voivodeship) and in the Koszalin Coastland and Gdansk, it did not make any improvement to the condition of crops, on the contrary the situation has continued with a significant deterioration.