ADMS

In the fourth reporting period, i.e. from 1 May to 30 June 2011, we confirm a threat of agricultural drought in some regions of Poland. The values of climatic water balance (CWB), on the basis of which the risk assessment of drought is calculated in most parts of areas for Poland are still negative (with the exception of Western Beskidy).

Compared to the third report, there has been an increase in the value of climatic water balance in almost all studied localities. The average CWB decline for the Poland was 9 mm; this means a further widening in the deficit of water for crops. In the areas of highest drought risk (Lubuskie and Wielkopolskie voivodeship), the deficit decreased by about 15 mm, but is still high and ranges from -160 to -229 mm. Similarly, water deficit decreased in the east of the country (Podlaskie and Lubelskie voivodeship) and no longer found to be in this part of the Polish. In recent sixty day period, the water deficit increased by about 15 mm in the Gdańsk coastal area, and in the hills of Południowomazowieckie.

A slight reduction in the deficit of water does not mean a radical improvement in water plants supply, drought persists in a substantial area of the country covering 18.3% of Polish arable land (10 days ago appeared on the surface of 24.4%), causing further losses in the crop:

• winter cereals

• spring cereals,

• corn for silage

• rape and turnip rape

• tobacco

• vegetables,

• shrubs

• fruit trees

• strawberries

• legumes

The threat of drought in comparison to the situation from ten days ago is smaller, and 132 local districts now have a lesser threat of drought. Currently, drought persists in 1,122 Polish local district (36.6% of local district), concentrated in nine voivodeships. Compared with the previous report, there is no longer a threat of drought in the Opolskie, Śląskie and Lubelskie voivodeships.

Furthermore in other voivodeships, the share of agricultural drought risk area was reduced. Currently, drought occurrence is very diverse in terms of numbers of local district and the percentage of arable land in each voivodeship is as follows:

The air temperature in May was very diverse. Earlier in the month, almost in the whole of the country ground frosts were evident - the other half, especially the last ten days of the month was very warm. The highest temperature in May occurred in the Lubuskie Lake District and in Wielkopolska (14-15^oC) and it was about 1-1.5 ° C higher than the average long-term (1971-2000). The lowest temperature was found in the coastal area around Gdansk (11-12^oC), for the rest of Poland the air temperature ranged from 12 to 14^oC which was higher than the long-term average by 0 to 1 degree.

In May, the lowest rainfall occurred in the Wielkopolska and Kujawskie voivodeships (less than 30 mm, and in places even below 20 mm), which accounted for 40% of the long-term norm, and in the vicinity of Poznan the precipitation was even below 20% of the norm. Slightly larger but still low rainfall occurred in the eastern part of the Zachodnipomorskie and Pomorskie, and also in south-eastern Lublin region (30-40 mm, 60-70% of norm). The highest rainfall occurred in the foothills of Śląskie, in the Beskid Śląski and Zywiec (80-120 mm, about 100% of the norm). In the remainder parts of Poland, precipitation ranged from 40 to 80 mm.

This year's June was warm. The warmest area was in central Poland from 18 to 19^oC. Southern and northern air temperatures were lower at 17-18^oC in the south and 16 - 17 °C in the north.

Precipitation in June was very diverse, ranging from very low (10-25 mm) in Wielkopolska, Dolnośląskie, Gdańsk coast, Północnomazowieckiej lowlands, Przedborski uplands and the Nida Basin, to high in the south-eastern and southern parts of the country, where they ranged from 50 to 120 mm.

Although the rainfall in July was within the norm over a large area of the country, it has not yet caused a radical improvement for many crops. Past losses caused by drought are no longer able to catch up and are expected to yield significant losses in many crops.

According to forecasts from IUNG-PIB as of 30 June 2011, crops losses caused by adverse weather conditions throughout the growing season across the country can range from about 10% for winter cereals and spring and up to 25% for rape.