ADMS

In the fourth reporting period, i.e. from 11 May to 10 July 2011, we confirm a threat of agricultural drought in some regions of Poland. The values of climatic water balance (CWB), on the basis of which the risk assessment of drought is calculated, are still negative in almost all of Poland (with the exception of Lesko and Nowy Sacz area).

Compared to the fourth report, there was a significant increase in the value of climatic water balance in almost all studied localities. CWB for Poland grew on average by 46 mm, which means that the water deficit for crops has decreased.

In the areas of highest drought risk such as Lubuskie and Wielkopolskie, the water deficit decreased by about 40 mm, ranging from -160 to -190 mm. In other parts of the country the water deficit also decreased substantially, and most of Warmia and Mazury (about 90 mm) and in the Mazowsze region by about 60 mm.

The current water shortage, resulting in reduced yields by 20% occurs within 4.7% of arable land (10 days ago appeared on the surface of 18.3%, and 20 days ago on the surface of 24.4%).

The threat of drought on Polish territory compared to the situation before 10 days ago has decreased by 811 local districts. Currently, drought persists in 311 local districts (10.2%) in four voivodeships. Compared with the previous report, there is no threat of drought in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Pomorskie, Mazowieckie, Lodzkie, Warminsko-mazurskie voivodeships. Also in other voivodeships, the share of agricultural drought risk area has decreased.

Currently the threat of drought occurs in:

The threat of drought in these voivodeship covers the following crops:

• winter cereals

• spring cereals,

• rape and turnip rape,

• fruit bushes,

• legumes

May this year, was warm. The highest temperature in May occurred in the Lubuskie Lake District and in Wielkopolska (14-15^oC) and it was about 1-1.5 ° C higher than the average long-term (1971-2000). The lowest temperature was found in the coastal area around Gdansk (11-12^oC), for the rest of Poland the air temperature ranged from 12 to 14^oC which was higher than the long-term average by 0 to 1 degree.

In May, the lowest rainfall occurred in the Wielkopolska and Kujawskie voivodeship’s (less than 30 mm, and in places even below 20 mm), which accounted for 40% of the long-term norm, and in the vicinity of Poznan the precipitation was even below 20% of the norm. Slightly larger but still low rainfall occurred in the eastern part of the Zachodnipomorskie and Pomorskie, and also in south-eastern Lublin region (30-40 mm, 60-70% of norm). The highest rainfall occurred in the foothills of Śląskie, in the Beskid Śląski and Zywiec (80-120 mm, about 100% of the norm). In the remainder parts of Poland, precipitation ranged from 40 to 80 mm.

This year's June was warm. The warmest area was in central Poland from 18 to 19^oC. Southern and northern air temperatures were lower at 17-18^oC in the south and 16 - 17 °C in the north.

Precipitation in June was very diverse, ranging from a very low (10-25 mm) in Wielkopolska, Dolnośląskie, Gdańsk coast, Północnomazowieckiej lowlands, Przedborski uplands and the Nida Basin, to high in the south-eastern and southern parts of the country, where it ranged from 50 to 120 mm.

The air temperature in the first ten days of July was low, especially in the south-eastern regions of the country and ranged from 15.5 to 16.5^o C. The warmest was in Lubuskie and Wielkopolskie regions 17.5-19.0 ^oC.

Precipitation in the first ten days of July was high or very high over a large area of the country. The greatest rainfall occurred in eastern Poland, especially in the north-east, reaching sizes of 60 to 120 mm. In western Poland was less rainfall (30-60 mm), while the lowest occurred in the Koszalin Coastland (15-30 mm).

Significant rainfall in June and the first decade of July, especially in the east of the country, resulted in some improvement of many crops. However, the current losses caused by early drought will cause a significant drop in yield of many crops.