ADMS

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – State Research Institute, in accordance with an Act of the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development has developed the climatic water balance for all 2478 Polish local districts and, on the basis of soil categories, calculated the current risk of agricultural drought for the following crops: winter and spring cereals, rape, turnip rape, sugar beet, fruit shrubs and trees, and strawberries.

In the first reporting period, i.e. from March 21st t° May 20th 2017, IUNG-PIB stated n° agricultural drought conditions in Poland. The Climatic Water Balance values, which are the basis for assessing the risk of agricultural drought, are negative for the majority of areas.

In the whole country, the recorded Climatic Water Balance values were higher than -50mm, the average for the country being -11mm. Based on the above it can be stated that presently there is no risk of agricultural drought.

In March it was warm in the vast majority of the country. The highest temperatures were recorded in the South-West Poland and ranged from 6 to 8°C. In the rest of the country temperatures ranged from 4 to 6°C. Only in the north-eastern parts of Poland the temperature was lower, ranging from 3 to 4°C. In the majority of the country the air temperature was 2-3°C higher than the multiannual average (1971-2000).

In April the temperatures ranged from 5 to more than 8°C. In the Silesian Lowland and the Sandomierska Basin the recorded temperatures were the highest, exceeding 8°C, but remaining within the norm. The further to the north-east the lower was the temperature. The lowest temperatures were recorded in the north of the country, ranging from 5 to 6°C. In the Małopolska Upland, the eastern part of the Pomeranian Lake District and the western part of the Mazurskie Lake District the temperatures were 0.5-1.0°C lower than the multiannual average.

In the first decade of May thermal conditions varied greatly. It was the warmest in the east, where the temperatures exceeded 10°C, and the coldest in the north, where the temperatures ranged from 6 to 7°C. In the second decade of the month the lowest temperatures were recorded in the east and ranged from 13°C to 14°C, and the highest temperatures, ranging from 15 to more than 16.5°C, were recorded in the west of the country.

In March precipitation varied across the country. Low precipitation, less than 30 mm, occurred in the western part of Kujawy and in the eastern regions of Greater Poland, constituting 70-90% of the multiannual norm in this area. In the rest of the country precipitation was more intense, ranging from 40 to 60 mm, which constituted 100-140% of the norm. In the north-eastern regions of Poland precipitation was even more intense and ranged from 80 to more than 100 mm (from 160 to more than 200% of the norm).

In April precipitation varied even more. Low precipitation below 30 mm was recorded in the Lubuskie Land and constituted 70-90% of the multiannual norm. In the vast majority of the country precipitation ranged from 30 to 50 mm, which was 100-130 of the norm. Very high precipitation values, from 50 to 140 mm, were recorded in the Sudetian Foreland, the Silesian, Podlaska and Masovian Lowlands, the Silesian, Krakow-Częstochowa and Małopolska Uplands, and in the eastern part of the Mazurskie Lake District, where it constituted from 130 to more than 230% of the multiannual norm. Particularly intense precipitation occurred in Podhale and in the Tatra Mountains, ranging from 140 to 260 mm and constituting 230 to more than 250% of the multiannual norm.

In May precipitation varied as well as in the previous months. In the first decade of the month intense precipitation occurred in many regions such as Szczecińska Lowland, Pomeranian Lake District, Masovia, Małopolska Upland, and Subcarpathia, where it ranged from 20 to 50 mm. In the rest of the country precipitation ranged from 5 to 20 mm.

In the second decade of May precipitation was considerably less intense. The highest values, from 10 to 30 mm, were recorded in the western, north-western and south-eastern regions of the country. In the rest of the country precipitation was less intense and ranged from 5 to 10 mm, or even less than 5 mm.

This year crops overwintered better than the year before. The course of weather conditions was more favourable this winter. Low temperature periods were relatively short and did not significantly affect the yields, though the snow cover was poor this winter. However, it has to be noted that locally weather conditions made it necessary to plough under the crops damaged by frost.

A more serious problem, however, were the unfavourable thermal conditions in early spring, precisely in the second decade of April, which caused freezing of buds and flowers on fruit trees and shrubs, as well as on berry plantations. The frosts that occurred in May caused further damage in orchards, especially to cherry trees and apple trees.

Currently, there is no risk of agricultural drought in Poland. Contrarily, abundant precipitation in spring locally caused flooding on fields and thermal conditions were not conducive to evaporation, which resulted in creating favourable humidity conditions for many crops.

Report prepared by:

Dr hab. Andrzej Doroszewski, associate professor

Dr hab. Rafał Pudełko

Dr Katarzyna Żyłowska

Mgr Piotr Koza

Mgr Elżbieta Wróblewska