ADMS

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – State Research Institute, in accordance with an Act from the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development has developed the climatic water balance for all 2478 Polish local districts and, on the basis of soil categories, calculated the current risk of agricultural drought for the following crops: winter and spring cereals, grain maize and maize for silage, rape and turnip rape, potato, sugar beet hops, tobacco, ground vegetables, fruit shrubs and trees, strawberries and legumes.

In the fourth reporting period, from May 1 to June 30, IUNG-PIB stated agricultural drought conditions in Poland. The Climatic Water Balance values, which are the basis for assessing the risk of agricultural drought, are negative for the majority of areas.

Agricultural drought in the current sixty-day period is becoming more intense, affecting increasingly larger areas. There is a growing number of crops with yield reduced by 20% due to the drought in comparison to the yield obtained in average multiannual weather conditions. In the current sixty-day period the Climatic Water Balance values are lower, on average by 16mm, in comparison to the previous period. From May 1 to June 30 drought occurred in six crops.

A risk of drought occurs in 428 local districts (17.27% of all local districts in Poland), in 4.04% of arable lands in 10 voivodships: kujawsko-pomorskie, mazowieckie, wielkopolskie, łódzkie, podlaskie, lubelskie, świętokrzyskie, warmińsko-mazurskie, lubuskie, dolnośląskie

In the current sixty-day period drought is stated in the following crops:

• winter cereals
• spring cereals
• fruit shrubs
• legumes
• rape and turnip rape
• strawberries

Drought occurs on soils of Category I (very light soils), granulometric groups:

• Loose sand
• Loose dusty sand
• Slightly loamy sand
• Slightly loamy dusty sand

and on soils of Category II (light soils), granulometric groups:

• Light loamy sand
• Light loamy dusty sand
• Heavy loamy sand
• Heavy loamy dusty sand

As in the previous sixty-day period, so in the current one, the most intense drought occurred in spring crops. It was recorded in 10 voivodships in 428 local districts in Poland. The number of local districts under risk of drought has decreased by 180 in comparison to the previous reporting period. Drought is currently stated in 17.27% of all local districts in Poland (7.26 % more than in the previous reporting period), in the area of 4.04% of arable land.

Table 1 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in spring cereals for local districts and the area of arable land in particular voivodships.

Table 1.

No.	Voivodship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	kujawsko-pomorskie	144	62	43.06	5.80
2	mazowieckie	314	130	41.40	9.39
3	wielkopolskie	226	80	35.40	11.58
4	łódzkie	177	51	28.81	7.74
5	podlaskie	118	31	26.27	2.84
6	lubelskie	213	45	21.13	3.20
7	świętokrzyskie	102	15	14.71	2.20
8	warmińsko-mazurskie	116	10	8.62	1.20
9	lubuskie	82	3	3.66	0.87
10	dolnośląskie	169	1	0.59	0.00

Drought occurs also in winter cereals, as it did in the previous sixty-day period. It has been noted in 7 voivodship in 154 local districts (50 more than in the previous reporting period) in 6.21% of all local districts in Poland (2.01% more than in the previous reporting period) in the area of 1.17 % of arable land.

Table 2 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in winter cereals for local districts and the area of arable land in particular voivodships.

Table 2.

No.	Voivodship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	wielkopolskie	226	54	23.89	627
2	kujawsko-pomorskie	144	27	18.75	1.24
3	mazowieckie	314	40	12.74	1.79
4	łódzkie	177	22	12.43	2.32
5	lubelskie	213	8	3.76	0.22
6	podlaskie	118	2	1.69	0.02
7	świętokrzyskie	102	1	0.98	0.00

Drought still occurs in fruit shrubs, noted in 3 voivodships in 24 local districts in Poland (the risk of drought has increased by 4 local districts in comparison to the previous reporting period). Among these crops drought occurs in 0.97% of all Polish local districts (the risk of drought has increased by 0.16%) in the area of 0.07% of arable land. Detailed data on drought occurrence in fruit shrubs in the aforementioned voivodships are presented in Table 3.

Table 3.

No.	Voivodship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	wielkopolskie	226	13	5.75	0.44
2	łódzkie	177	9	5.08	0.27
3	kujawsko-pomorskie	144	2	1.39	0.00

Drought still occurs in legumes, noted in 5 voivodships in 89 local districts (25 more than in the previous reporting period), which constitute 3.59% of all local districts in Poland (1.01% more in comparison to the previous reporting period) and 0.55% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in legumes are presented in Table 4.

Table 4.

No.	Voivodship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	wielkopolskie	226	43	19,03	3.83
2	kujawsko-pomorskie	144	14	9.72	0.31
3	łódzkie	177	16	9.04	1.49
4	mazowieckie	314	11	3.50	0.07
5	lubelskie	213	5	2.35	0.00

Drought in rape and turnip rape was noted in 3 voivodships in 24 local districts in Poland, which constitute 0.97% of all local districts in Poland, in the area of 0.05% of arable land. Detailed data on drought occurrence in the aforementioned crops are presented in Table 5.

Table 5.

No.	Voivodship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	wielkopolskie	226	13	5.75	0.21
2	łódzkie	177	8	4.52	0.42
3	kujawsko-pomorskie	144	3	2.08	0.00

Drought occurs also in strawberries. It was noted in 1 voivodship in 1 local district, constituting 0.04% of all local districts in Poland and 0.00% of arable land. Detailed data on drought occurrence in strawberries are presented in Table 6.

Table 6.

No.	Voivodship	Number of local districts	Number of local districts at risk	Share of local districts at risk [%]	Share of the area at risk [%]
1	łódzkie	177	1	0.56	0.00

May was warm this year, particularly in Lubuska Land and here and there in the areas of Wielkopolska Lowland, Mazowiecka Lowland, Szczecińska Lowland and Kujawy, where the air temperature was above 15.5°C and was 2°C higher than the multiannual average. In the majority of the country the temperature recorded ranged from 14 to 15°C and was 1-1.5°C higher than the multiannual average. The lowest temperature was in Sudety and Karpaty and in the north-east part of Słowińskie Coastland, ranging from 12 to 14°C and exceeding the multiannual average by 1-1.5°C.

The first decade of June was characterised by a relatively low air temperature in the vast area of western Poland, and particularly in the north-west part of the country, ranging from 17 to 18.5°C – the further towards the east the lower being the temperature recorded. In the vast area of eastern Poland the temperature of 15°C was recorded.

In the second and third decade of June the situation was reversed. Definitely the warmest temperature was recorded in the south-east of Poland, ranging from 17.5 to 18.5°C in the second decade and from 21.5 to 22.5°C in the third). In large areas of the country temperature ranging from 16 to 17.5°C was recorded in the second decade, and from 20 to 21.5°C in the third. In the northern regions it ranged from 14 to 16°C in the second decade and from 19 to 20°C in the third.

In May the precipitation videly varied. The lowest, not exceeding 20 mm, was recorded in Lubuska Land and Szczecińska Lowland. It constituted ca. 30% of the multiannual average (1971-2000). Low precipitation occurred in many regions, such as: Wielkopolska Lowland, Silesia Lowland, Kujawy, in the south part of Mazowiecka Lowland, in Małopolska Upland, Silesia Upland, Polesie, Kaszuby, Zachodnio- and Południowosuwalskie Lake Districts, and in Sandomierska Basin, where it ranged from 20 to 40 mm, constituting 40-60% of the norm. In the majority of the country precipitation ranged from 40 to 60 mm (60-80% of the norm). The highest was recorded in Sudeckie and Karpackie Forelands, from 60 to more than 120mm. The wide range of precipitation in the country was a result of the stormy character of rainfall, thus the areas with very high precipitation occurred right next to the low precipitation regions.

In the first decade of June precipitation was law in the vast area of the country. Particularly low precipitation, not exceeding 5 mm was recorded in the significant area of north-west Poland and in Lubelskie region. In the vast area of the country it ranged from 5 to 15 mm.

In the second decade of June, on the other hand, the greatest precipitation occurred in the north-west part of Poland, ranging from 20 to 60 mm, and in some regions even from 60 to 100 mm. Low precipitation, from 10 to 20 mm occurred in the vast majority of the country, and very low precipitation, not exceeding 10mm, was recorded in the south-east part of Poland.

In the third decade of June the greatest precipitation was recorded in two lanes: one from Lubuska Land through the east parts of Pomeranian Lake District and the west of Mazurskie Lake District, and the other, between Silesian Upland, Małopolska Upland and Mazowiecka Lowland to Mazurskie Lake District. In this area precipitation ranged from 20 to 60 mm, here and there exceeding 100 mm. In the rest of the country the precipitation was lower, from10 to 20 mm.

As in the previous reporting period, so in the current one there was a wide variety of water resources level for arable crops in Poland. Water deficiency significantly increased in the whole country, particularly in the east (by ca.30mm), where it is ranging from -120 to -149 mm. The greatest water deficiency, from-170 to -179mm, still occurs in Łaska and Turecka Uplands, but it is serious also in the south regions of Mazowiecka Lowland, where it resulted in a considerable yield reduction. It mostly concerns crops located on weak and very weak soils.

Report prepared by:

Dr hab. Andrzej Doroszewski, prof. nadzw.

Mgr Piotr Koza

Mgr Tomasz Jóźwicki