ADMS

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation - State Research Institute in accordance with an Act from the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development has developed the climatic water balance for all Polish municipalities (3,064 municipalities), and based on the soils categories have identified in those municipalities the current agricultural drought risk for the following crops: winter and spring cereals, corn for grain and silage, sugar beets, potatoes, sugar beets, hops, tobacco, field vegetables, shrubs and fruit trees, strawberries and legumes.

In the fourth reporting period, i.e. from May 11 to July 10, 2013, IUNG-PIB does not state a risk of agricultural drought in Poland. The values of climatic water balance (CWB), which are the basis to assess the risk of drought in most areas, are negative, but these values for the above-mentioned crops are much higher than the critical value.

The distribution of CWB, in compare to the situation from ten days ago, there were no major changes. The lowest values of CWB, from -110 to -119 mm, were still on the Żuławy Wiślane, also low values of CWB, like ten days ago, has been reported in northern Poland (from -70 to -79 mm). In most of the country, the CWB ranged from -50 to -59 mm. While the southern Poland, these values increased, reaching the Western Beskid Mountains surplus, ranging from 130 to 160 mm.

CWB values, relative to the situation of the prior 10 days in the country decreased by an average of 37 mm, which means that the current excess water to plants is smaller.

Across the country, there was small increase (by 10mm in northern eastern parts of Poland) in the CWB during the relevant sixty days period. However, large reductions of CWB, reaching up to 100 mm, occurred in the Śląska Lowland.

May this year in terms of thermal conditions was varied. The highest air temperature occurred in eastern Poland, reaching more than 16°C. On the western edge of the country, the air temperature was 12-13°C. In most parts of the country, the air temperature was higher than the long-term average by 1-2°C, only the Sudeten Foreland area showed a temperature in the long-term norm. A similar situation was observed in June, in the east of the country where the air temperature reached 17.5-18.5°C, while in the west it was 15-17°C.

The first ten days of July in Poland were noted with a relatively small variation in air temperature. The lowest temperatures were recorded in the north and the south of the country (17.5 -18.5°C) and the highest in central Poland (19.5 -20°C).

During the sixty-day period reported across the country, compared to the situation from ten days ago, there was an increase in evapotranspiration of about 20 mm. Currently, the average value of the evapotranspiration for the country is -220 mm.

In May, the lowest precipitation occurred in the north-east of the country (50-60 mm) and they were in the norm of the long-term average. Slightly larger precipitation occurred in a wide belt of central Poland, west of the Vistula (60-100 mm). The highest rainfall was recorded in the Mazowiecka and Śląska Lowlands and the Śląsko-Krakowska Uplands (from 120 to 180 mm) which was from 130 to 250% (Mazovia) of the long-term norm.

Precipitation in June was very diverse. The lowest rainfall ranging 30-60 mm occurred in the north of the country (Embankment and Południowobałtycki Lake district), the highest was recorded on the Śląsko-Krakowska and Malopolska Highlands (160-180 mm) while in Sudety, very high rainfall was recorded, even as high as 200 mm.

Poland in terms of rainfall in the first ten days of July was very different. In the large areas of the country, the precipitation was very low, ranging from several to 10 mm. However, the highest rainfall was recorded locally in many parts of the Poland; they were up to 100 mm, both in the north and the south of the country. Such high rainfall was of a stormy origin.

Very heavy rainfall, which occurred throughout the country, especially in the south-western part of the Poland in addition to the occurrence at the time of the relatively high air temperatures, can cause significant infection of cereals and oilseed rape. In many areas, there has been a long-term excessive soil humidity. Where excess water has lasted in long hollows, and even reached the complete destruction of the root system and stunting.

The current weather conditions are very conducive to cereals head diseases, especially Fusarium and Glume blotch fungus.

This year's weather pattern makes the forecasted yields (developed by IUNG-PIB), where we can expect a reduction in crop yields over the country: winter wheat by 4%, rye, spring wheat, spring barley by 2%, 3% potato and rape 9%, relative to the long-term average. We do, however forecast growth in sugar beet yields by 3% and corn for grain by 9%. We expect that the oat crop yields will be similar to the long-term average.