ADMS

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation - State Research Institute Puławy, in accordance with the requirements of the Polish law, has developed the climatic water balance for all of Poland (3,064 local districts) and based on soil categories identified in those local districts the current state of agricultural drought risk for the following crops: winter and spring cereals, grain and silage maize, potatoes, sugar beet, hops, tobacco, vegetables, shrubs and fruit trees, strawberries and plants legumes.

From 21 May to 20 July 2012, we have not stated an agricultural drought occurrence in Poland. The value of climatic water balance (CWB), on the basis of which the drought risk assessment is calculated was negative; however, these values for those crops are slightly higher than the critical value.

In the period May 21 - 20 July 2012, in comparison to the prior ten day period, the CWB values have increased across the country by an average of 10 mm, which means that the current water deficit for the plants is smaller than in the previous sixty day period. The largest increase in the CWB (40 to 120 mm) occurred in the north of Poland, while a decrease of these values (20-40 mm) was recorded in the eastern areas of the country. The lowest values of CWB, from -100 to -119 mm, occurred in the Wzniesieniu Południowomazowieckim, and in the southern parts of the Południowopodlaskiej lowlands and Western Polesie regions. Positive values of the CWB were not recorded in the country.

In June, the lowest rainfall occurred in the Szczecin Lowlands, south of Mazowsze, and the Śląsko-Krakowska Uplands and in the Lublin Uplands (from 60 to 90 mm). The highest rainfall was recorded in the Masury and Południowopomorskie Lake Districts, as well as the Podlasie, Carpathian and Wzniesieniach Zielonogórskich regions (110 do160 mm). In Kujawy, the rainfall was higher than normal (average 1971-2000) by 160-180%, and in the rest of the country were within normal values.

In the first ten days of July, Poland was very diverse in terms of precipitation. The lowest rainfall occurred in the areas of south-eastern Poland, in Wielkopolska as well as on the coast (from 5 to 35 mm). Whilst the highest rainfall was recorded in south-western area of Poland, Warmia and Mazury, the Krakowsko-Częstochowska Uplands, and the south of Mazowsze (50-150 mm).

In the second ten days of July the country in terms of precipitation was also very diverse. The lowest precipitation, as in the first ten days, occurred in south-eastern areas Poland and in the Opole region (from 5 to 20 mm); whilst the highest rainfall was recorded on the coast, and in the Bieszczady Mountains (70-140 mm).

In terms of temperature, Poland in June was very diverse, from cold areas in the north, where temperatures ranged from 14 to 15°C to warm regions in the south of the country, where the temperature was from 18 to 18.5°C. In the Carpathian, Małopolska and Śląsk regions, the average air temperature was higher than the long-term average (1971-2000) by more than 2°C. In the belt of Lublin, through to southern Mazowsze, Dolny Śląsk, and Opole region, the temperature in June was higher than norm by 1-2°C. The temperature was within the norm in the rest of the country for June.

In the first ten days of July there were also very large variations in air temperature and sunshine duration in Poland. The lowest temperature were recorded in the north (17.5°C) and highest in south-eastern Poland (25°C). A very similar distribution was found in terms of sunshine; the north-west had an average of only five hours per day, while in the south-east up to 12 hours.

The second ten days of July was colder, and the coldest was in the northern parts of the country (15-15.5°C), and the warmest, as in the previous ten days, in the south-east (18-18.5°C).

The distribution of sunshine duration in the second ten days of July was very similar to the situation in the first ten days, and continued to the north-west of the country where there the least hours of sunshine occurred, averaging only about four hours a day, compared to the south-east of the country the sun shone for 7-8 hours.

Throughout the sixty day period, the lowest precipitation (from 125 to 150 mm) occurred in the north-western area of Polish regions, south of Mazowsze, the Śląsko-Krakowska Uplands and the Lublin Uplands. Whilst the highest rainfall were recorded in the Mazury Lake District, in the Carpathian and Wzniesieniach Zielonogórskich regions (from 250 to 350 mm). During this period, evapotranspiration was highest in the south of Mazowsze and Śląsko-Krakowska and Lublin Uplands (240-260 mm), and the lowest on the Szczecin Coastland and a wide belt of northern Poland (175-200 mm).

Still, as in the previous sixty day period, in south of Mazowsze, the Śląsko-Krakowska and Lublin Uplands, rainfall was the lowest and with the highest evapotranspiration, which resulted in the largest deficit of water for crops recorded in these areas. However, in these regions there was an observed negative water balance which did not raise an agricultural drought, but could have resulted in yield losses greater than 20%.

For crops, the relevant period was considered as favourable in terms of humidity, because there are no areas with excess water, while a small deficit does not adversely affect the course of vegetation.